Solih to Lead, But ‘Undecided’ Voters Will Sway Election Outcome, Research Predicts

An opinion poll by Baani Centre revealed that President Solih will maintain a lead, but ‘undecided’ voters will likely determine the outcome of the presidential election’s second round, to be held on Saturday.

The data for September’s poll was collected between 23-26 September. The results show a 6-point lead for President Solih, which is just above the poll’s 5% margin of error. The President scored 30% in the poll, to Dr Muizz’s 24%. In the first round of the election, President Solih won 39% of the vote while Dr. Muizzu won 46 % of the votes.

advertisement

advertisement

advertisement

The high number of undecided voters in this month’s poll – at 36% – could pose a problem for the President, however.

In Baani’s August poll, conducted shortly before the first round, President Solih was ahead of Dr Muizz by 21% to 14%, with over half of voters undecided. The results of the first round suggest that those undecided voters broke heavily in favor of Dr Muizz on election day. Given the high percentage of undecided voters and uncertainty as to how they would vote, Baani is unable to predict the final results of the election.

Presidential or parliamentary system?

This month’s poll also asked voters whether they favor a presidential or parliamentary system. A national referendum on this question is due to be held before the end of October.

The poll’s results showed a big majority in favor of the existing presidential system, by 64% to 12%, with 19% undecided. This suggests the ‘parliamentary camp’, led by The Democrats, has an uphill task to convince voters to switch systems, with just a month of campaigning available before referendum day.

The poll results are representative of the Maldivian voting population, with a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error. This means that if the poll was conducted multiple times, 95% of the time the results would be within 5% of the results from our poll.

Baani’s detailed polling reports are available at: https://baanicentre.org/research/.