Resident Population to Fall By Over 13,000 After 2050 Peak, Stats Show 

Statistics Maldives projects that the resident Maldivian population will peak at 427,994 people in 2050 before declining by more than 13,000 people over the following twelve years, marking a shift toward negative population growth.

The Maldives Population Projection 2022–2062 report estimates that the population will grow by around 46,000 residents between 2022 and 2050. After reaching its peak, the population is expected to decrease by 1,000 people per year, falling to 414,679 by 2062.

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Although the population continues to rise in absolute numbers until mid-century, the annual growth rate steadily declines and is expected to approach zero in 2050. By 2062, the growth rate is projected to fall to –0.5 percent, indicating the start of long-term population decline driven by sustained low fertility.

A major shift in age structure is also forecast. In 2022, children and youth made up 60 percent of the population, while elderly Maldivians aged 65 and above accounted for only 5 percent. By 2062, children and youth are expected to account for a significantly smaller share, while the elderly population rises sharply to 29 percent. This would classify the Maldives as a super-aged society, with more than one in four people aged 65 or older.

The proportion of adults aged 36 to 64 is expected to remain close to current levels at around 38 percent, although the size of the national workforce is projected to depend increasingly on foreign labour as local youth numbers decline.

Fertility remains the key factor behind the demographic shift. The Total Fertility Rate, which peaked at 6.4 children per woman in 1995, has fallen below the replacement level in recent years and stood at 1.7 children per woman in Census 2022. Long-term fertility is projected to stabilise between 1.3 and 1.7, consistent with international trends in low-fertility countries.

The report suggests that the Maldives will need to prepare for an ageing population, slower economic momentum and increasing demand on healthcare and social support systems in the decades ahead.