Undecided Voters to Shape the Outcome of Coming Election, Says Research

The Baani Centre revealed that today that the impending Maldivian presidential election, scheduled for 9 September, appears to be hanging in the balance, heavily contingent upon the choices of the indecisive electorate. 

As the election draws within the three-week horizon, 52% of the electorate remains entrenched in uncertainty regarding their chosen candidate.

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This intriguing statistic persists in spite of the poll’s timing, which was conducted after the Elections Commission had unveiled the presidential candidates and subsequent to President Yameen’s unsuccessful challenge to his disqualification in the Supreme Court.

This particular poll notched the highest percentage within the ‘undecided’ category since the inception of Baani Centre’s monthly polling series in April. Notably, the figure stood at 42% in the initial April poll. 

Surpassing the norms observed in analogous polls within different democracies, the sheer size of the ‘undecided’ cohort renders prognosticating the outcome of the Maldivian presidential election.

Despite the shifting dynamics introduced by the pool of undecided voters, President Solih maintains his status as the most preferred candidate. 

This trend has persisted since the commencement of Baani’s monthly polling initiatives. In the latest poll conducted in August, President Solih commanded 21% of the vote, a notable milestone as it marks the first instance of him crossing the 20% threshold. 

This stands in contrast to his 19% score in the preceding July poll.

Securing second place in this month’s poll, Dr. Muizz captured 14% of the votes. This trend implies a significant shift of allegiance from former President Yameen’s supporters towards Dr. Muizz, a candidate who Yameen himself has publicly endorsed. 

In July’s poll conducted by Baani, Yameen had garnered 18%. Merely 1% of respondents indicated their inclination towards a candidate not listed on the ballot.

Democratic Party nominee, Ilyas Labeeb, secured 2% of the votes in the August poll, as opposed to former President Nasheed’s 4% in the July poll. 

The remaining candidates, namely Umar Naseer, Hassan Zameel, Gasim Ibrahim, and Mohamed Nazim, all amassed 1% of the votes each.

The prevailing expectation is that the final tallies for all candidates will experience a marked upswing on voting day compared to the depicted figures in the opinion poll. 

This projection is underpinned by the premise that the 52% of uncertain voters will ultimately reach a decision, consequently triggering a redistribution of their votes. 

The poll’s findings, ascertained with a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error, provide a representative portrayal of the Maldivian voting populace. 

This statistical framework signifies that in the hypothetical scenario of conducting multiple repetitions of the poll, the results would deviate by no more than 5% from the present poll’s outcomes.