El Niño Strengthens in the Pacific Ocean, Raising Heat and Rainfall Risks for Maldives
Photo: MNDF
The Maldives is likely to face above-normal temperatures nationwide and shifting rainfall patterns over the coming months as El Niño strengthens in the Pacific, raising potential risks for the country’s coral reefs, fisheries and agriculture.
On Friday, the Maldives Meteorological Service said the latest observations show sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while the Niño3.4 index reached 1.8°C in mid-August, with both oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflecting an active El Niño.
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The weather phenomenon could have significant implications for the Maldives, particularly through an increased risk of marine heatwaves, which can place additional stress on coral reef ecosystems and contribute to coral bleaching. Changes in ocean temperatures and currents could also affect the distribution and availability of key fisheries, including skipjack and yellowfin tuna.
El Niño is strengthening. Climate outlook for Sept–Nov: above‑normal rainfall in northern & parts of central atolls, below‑normal in southern-most atolls. Across the Maldives, temperatures will be above‑normal. Full report: https://t.co/mfpQifM8Jz pic.twitter.com/Y7XC9lePcg— Maldives Meteorology (@MetMaldives) August 28, 2026
Changes in rainfall patterns may further affect agriculture and water resources, highlighting the need for preparedness across sectors vulnerable to climate variability, including tourism, fisheries and agriculture.
For September to November 2026, the Meteorological Service forecasts above-normal temperatures across the entire Maldives, with more than an 80 per cent probability. Rainfall is expected to be above normal across northern and some central atolls, while the southernmost atoll is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall.
The outlook indicates near-normal rainfall conditions across some mid-southern atolls, while the entire country is expected to experience warmer-than-normal conditions during the three-month period.
The Meteorological Service said it is closely monitoring the development of El Niño and its potential effects on the Maldives.
