Majority of Maldivians Undecided Who They Will Vote For, Says Research

A majority of Maldivians are undecided about who they will vote for in a presidential election, according to the results of the latest opinion poll by the Baani Centre for International Policy, an independent Maldives-based think tank.
Fifty-two per cent of those surveyed in June said they were undecided on who they would vote for, an increase of 7% since May when 45% of poll respondents were undecided. In April, 43% of respondents were undecided. As the election approaches, voters appear increasingly unsure of their preferred presidential candidate (see Figure 2.2).
The results of June’s opinion poll also saw support for President Solih fall to 15%, from 20% in May. Support for former President Yameen also fell to 10% in June, from 13% in May. Support for former President Nasheed increased to 6% in June, from 4% in May.
These changes in support for the three leading politicians fall within the poll’s 5% margin of error, and should therefore be taken lightly. Nevertheless, the poll results do indicate that the race might be tightening.
Support for Gasim Ibrahim fell to 1% in June, from 2% in May, and 3% in April, suggesting his campaign is struggling to gain traction among voters.
Fourteen percent of respondents in June’s poll said they did not intend to vote, down slightly from 15% in May and April.
Support for Political Parties
June’s opinion poll also asked voters if they preferred any political party. Sixty-five per cent of voters said they do not support, nor have a preference, for any political party (see Figure 2.6).
The telephone-based survey, conducted on a random sample representative of Maldivian voters, asked participants who they would vote for if a presidential election were held tomorrow. The results are weighted by age, and sex, to achieve a representative sample of the Maldivian electorate.
President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih can find some comfort in the fact that his popularity has shown a slight increase of 2% compared to the April poll. However, it should be noted that this increase falls within the margin of error of 5%, so it cannot be definitively stated that his numbers have improved.
Former presidents Abdulla Yameen and Mohamed Nasheed maintained their respective support levels at 13% and 4% from the April poll. Yameen is currently serving a jail sentence and as such, is disqualified from running. Nasheed has not announced his candidacy, and the polling data was collected prior to the announcement to form a new political party by his MPs and supporters.
The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party was supported by 17% of respondents, while 12% supported the PPM, 3% supported the newly established The Democrats, 1% supported Gasim’s Jumhooree Party, and 1% supported the Maldives National Party.
The Baani Centre poll asked 384 respondents about their voting intention in a randomized telephone interview, conducted between June 19-22. The poll has a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error. This means that if the survey was conducted multiple times, 95% of the time the results would be within 5% of the results shown.
The Baani Centre continues to conduct monthly polls in the lead-up to the presidential election. The June opinion poll report is available in full at: https://baanicentre.org/research/.